No Attack On Iran

It is important that Seymour Hersh exposes the rumblings from various parts of the US government about a potential attack on Iran, but on this occasion I've felt for some time that it's not going to happen. It's not that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and so on wouldn't do such a thing - personally I think they'd do it in a heartbeat if it gained them a few points in the polls - but that they can't even if they want to. It's getting close to the end of Bush's second term, he doesn't have the personal clout any more, and Iraq is such a complete and utter catastrophe that the response to any further military adventurism would, I think, be swift and damning. Now this wouldn't reassure me if I was sitting in Tehran, but that's how it looks from here.

And now someone with some actual knowledge says the same thing. The Yorkshire Ranter is someone who seems to know his military logistics stuff, and also comes from God's Own County, so he can hardly be wrong, and he argues that the US just doesn't have the needed stuff in the area to carry out any attack on Iran.

His recent posts have been excellent - I especially like his unified theory of stupidity on terrorism  where he starts off with this:

I'm beginning to think that it's possible to discern so many similarities between really stupid opinions on terrorism that we can call it a theory. Specifically, if you're talking about state sponsorship, you're probably wrong, unless overwhelming evidence contradicts this. As far as I can tell, the modern version of this theory originated in the late 1970s or early 1980s. It had been about - Shakespeare has a character in Richard II allege that "all the troubles in our lands/have in false Bolingbroke their first head and spring" - but the strong form seems to have originated then.

Key features are that 1) terrorist or guerrilla activity is never the work of the people who appear to carry it out, 2) instead it is the work of a Sponsor, 3) that only action against the Sponsor will be effective, 4) even if there is no obvious sign of the Sponsor's hand, this only demonstrates their malign skill, and 5) there is evidence, but it is too secret to produce. In the strong form, it is argued that all nonconventional military activity is the work of the same Sponsor.

and his Recidivist with alert populations, where he says this:

try out the following quote from one Robert Mocny, director of the USVISIT program at DHS:

"We cannot allow to impediment our progress the privacy rights of known criminals."

The law is what I say it is, and you're either with us, or you're with the terrorists. Perhaps literally with them, in the cells. Joseph Sensibaugh, manager of biometric interoperability for the FBI, meanwhile opines that "It helps the Department of Homeland Security determine who's a good guy and who's a bad guy," targeting "suspected terrorists" and "remaining recidivist with alert populations". Not to mention the president of Bolivia and a dead bluesman, apparently.

Why does it specifically have to be illiterate authoritarianism, by the way? What does that last phrase actually mean, anyone? Anyway. Enquiring minds want to know more. What was this "pilot project"? Whose records were given to the DHS? Will they be told? What are the safeguards? Where are the guarantees?

Good questions Alex.

Scholarships: Enough With the Leadership Thing

For family reasons I've been looking at university scholarships. There are those that you get if you have a certain average, and then there are others that you have to apply for and which usually involve a mixture of scholarship and "other stuff". And that "other stuff" is almost always defined as "leadership". Like the Lo Family scholarship at the University of Toronto (http://www.adm.utoronto.ca/awd/scholarships.htm#UTscholars):

"Awarded to students who are active as leaders, are respected and considered to be well-rounded citizens in their school and community..."

Or at Queen's University, the D & R Sobey Atlantic Scholarship  requires "Academic excellence, proven leadership and involvement in school or community activities." (http://www.queensu.ca/registrar/awards/apply/apply-scholar.html). You get the idea. Of course there are exceptions (like the lovely John Macara (Barrister) award at U of T: "Preference given to applicants who can establish that they are the blood kin of the late Mrs. Jean Glasgow, the donor of this award.") but most of the time it's all about the leadership.

Now I have nothing against leaders -- all successful groups need someone to take credit for their accomplishments -- but this focus on leadership to the exclusion of all else is a crock. Apart from being ill-defined, it does a pretty good job of saying to those 17 and 18 year olds out there that there's only one kind of admirable person in the world, and that's those who join lots of things, play sports (preferably as captain or quarterback), and Get Involved. Do we really want a world full of the parentally-pushed, self-important, power-hungry egotists who fill "leadership" positions as teenagers?

So, free of charge and in search of a better future for all of us, here is a list of scholarships I'd like to see adopted by universities:

The Wordsworth Scholarship: awarded to students who have shown that they deeply appreciate the world around them and pursue independent expression of their thoughts, regardless of peer pressure.
Documentation required:
- Tear-stained copy of a letter of rejection by a former girlfriend/boyfriend
- A notebook filled with juvenile poems
- Letter banning you from school spirit club
The entrance exam will require you to sit still, in complete silence, for 30 minutes.

The Paddy Clarke Initiative Award: awarded to students with demonstrated ability to take responsibility for their own lives.
Qualifications:
- Must have lived in a two-parent home for less than half their childhood.
- Must have moved out of home at least once during their teenage years. Preference given to those who have lived in a squat.
- Preference will be given to those convicted of shop-lifting, as long as the theft was for a demonstrably useful object.

The Larkin Scholarship: awarded to middle-class students with regular parents, who have never travelled abroad. Qualifications:
- Must own and wear bicycle clips regularly
- Attendance at church or other religious institution preferred. Belief not necessary.

The Perec Prize: awarded to students who have demonstrated precocity in the realm of obscure puzzles and word games.
Qualifications:
- An essay is required which must include all of the following:
    - a list of at least 24 related items
    - a meal that is all one colour
    - a mathematical theorem
The essay must have no hypothesis or conclusion, but must include at least three words that contain all the vowels in reverse order.

The Bookworm Scholarship: awarded to students who have demonstrated intellectual curiosity by exploring the the world they live in through the medium of books.
Documentation required:
- Dog eared copy of at least three major works of literature.
- Must have read at least two books banned by major school boards.
- The ability to articulate your ideas clearly demonstrates that you really don't understand the complexity of the world and will exclude you from this scholarship.

Andy Warhol / Supernova

Went into Toronto today, and took a look at the Andy Warhol exhibition   at the Art Gallery of Ontario, "guest curated" by David Cronenberg.

Talking to AK beforehand, she said that the show is as much about Cronenberg as it is about Warhol, and I see what she means. The theme is "Stars, Deaths and Disasters, 1962–1964", and it's the Deaths part that is most obvious, and which Cronenberg has most to say about on the commentary. Given that Warhol produced so much stuff the focus on death, particularly grisly death (as in the electric chair series and the Car Crash series) and disaster does seem to have more to do with Cronenberg's interests than with Warhol's.

I went not knowing much about Warhol beyond Campbell Soup, Velvet Underground, and the odd profile of him I'd seen. I wasn't sure whether I would be impressed or not - I don't have knee jerk reactions for or against modern art. On the plus side, I like being challenged by art - anything that makes you take a different look at a piece of the world deserves praise, whether you agree with it or not - and on the negative side, I don't have much time for sensationalism for the sake of it. But how to tell the difference?

I'm glad I saw the exhibition, and some of the things I really liked (the Elvis image, for example) but overall I ended up with a lower opinion of Warhol than when I went in.

The films were the least impressive part of the exhibition. ("Blow Job", "Sleep", "The Couch", "Screen Tests", and something about a haircut) There is always something about yesterday's iconoclasts that is a little pathetic, because the most outrageous things tend to look tamer over time (well, except for Un Chien Andalou perhaps). Most people go through a phase of self-discovery and exploration of our place in the world, some with more gusto than others. But most of us don't call it ground-breaking art and I didn't see much in the films beyond a desire to shock and a desire to self promote. The expressions on some of the models/participants/actors were just "hey, look at us, aren't we something" and I thought - "no". The films seemed to catch the worst of what the Warhol phenomenon is about: the circular reasoning behind the fame and celebrity that he seemed to pursue so relentlessly. Warhol is important in part because of the subjects of his art (Jackie O, Liz Taylor, Marilyn Monroe); but in some cases the subjects take on their importance only because it was Warhol who pointed his camera at them: Warhol, in the end, is important only because he is Warhol. The insights that the commentary gives into his apparent shyness, his pursuit of celebrity, and his devotion to celebrity are creepy. There is a touch of the Paris Hilton here - famous for being famous. And if Warhol, you say, is deeper than Paris Hilton, then he would disagree - one wall had his epigram on it:
"If you want to know all about Andy Warhol, just look at the surface of my paintings and films and me, and there I am. There's nothing behind it." The two of them share something in common.

The silk-screen images were more interesting, and occasionally more disturbing. The best -- the electric chair series (can't remember their real name) and some of the Liz Taylor series, and the famous Elvis Presley images, use the repetitive silk-screen technique to fine effect, with the sequence of images fading away, or collapsing on themselves, giving a poignant and melancholy air to the whole image. Others, such as Race Riot and Car Crash, disturbed me for different reasons. Where the commentary argued that Warhol forces us to look in a different way at the images, I'm afraid I just saw them as a self-promotional artist taking others' grief and distress and making himself famous from it. His own distance from his subject did not have the effect on me that it had on Cronenberg. He found the distancing effect of silkscreen, the coldness of the technique, to demand a new scrutiny of the image. I had no such reaction - to me Warhol's recycling of these images as art had little impact.

I'm glad I went, if only to see the iconic Presley image at full size and in the silk-screened flesh - starting tall and bold, and fading away into a dim greyness over time, it's difficult not to see it as prophecy. But I can't take Warhol seriously as a major artist. The fact that his reputation has grown since his death is, I suspect, mainly a result of his contemporaries bringing sentimental memories of the their youth into the now top-of-the-field positions that they occupy.

Cool Webby Things Change How We Work

I routinely use three different computers, and so any web-based tool is a natural for me. I don't want to move stuff around from place to place, and I don't really want to store home things on a work computer. So I find myself - although not without misgivings - keeping more stuff on the web all the time.

I've used Gmail as e-mail interface for some time, and I keep photos on Flickr, and now I keep appointments on Google Calendar.  I've just discovered LibraryThing (hi piefuchs) and am working out what to do with it, but I expect I'll keep some kind of catalogue of my books there. There's no doubt these new applications are changing how useful the web is. I recently started using Zoho Writer to write longer weblog posts, and the thing is, I could imagine using it as my main word processing program. It's nowhere near as feature-rich as MS Word, of course - but being free, web-based, and reasonably usable, are three big things in its favour, and that's something I didn't expect a year ago. Zoho Sheet is pretty cool too.

One big question is whether Google's forthcoming web-based word processing and spreadsheet programs will be any good. Their spreadsheet is now in Beta, and I'd say it's not quite as good as Zoho Sheet (no graphs, for example). Their word processor is probably not too far off, as they bought Writely a few months ago. While Google Earth is one of the coolest programs ever, some other things they have done seem half-finished, so I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that Google will win this particular battle.

I can really see a time, not too far off, when many people will use web-based applications for most of their word processing and spreadsheet programs. Microsoft Office is overdue for some competition from some kind of disruptive technology, and in a couple of years MS could have some real problems.

Crisis and Opportunity

I watch The Daily Show pretty much every night, but somehow I missed this one, which is brilliant.

Have Your Robots Talk to My Robots

Here's a draft of something I've been working on over the weekend...

On a hot summer’s day a few years ago I was waiting at a train station in the UK. The train was late. A voice came over the public address system saying “We apologize for the late arrival of the 10:30 to Brighton”. Fair enough. Then ten minutes later, the same voice, in the same intonation, said the same words:  “We apologize for the late arrival of the 10:30 train to Brighton”. Ten minutes more, the same thing. And so on for an hour or so until the train finally arrived.

What stayed with me was not the lateness of the train — the day was so hot that tracks were buckling and we knew on setting off that we were in for delays — it was that announcement. The words themselves sounded like an apology, but, just like “your call is important to us”, the message that came through to me was the exact opposite of what the words themselves said.

* * *

Literature scholars have a notion of something called “performative language”. The idea is that while most utterances simply talk about the world (“That daisy is yellow”) others actually perform an action. “I resign”, when spoken to your boss, is not just a statement, it is an action that changes your status from employed to unemployed. “I do” when said in the right place and in front of the right audience, actually changes the speaker’s status from unmarried to married.

“We apologize” can be a performative utterance. When offered in the correct way, saying you’re sorry is not just a statement about the world, it is an act: the act of apologizing. But it’s not always a performative utterance. It needs two things to make it so.

First, and most obviously, someone needs to say it. Without an apologizer, there can be no apology. An automated system cannot apologize.

It could be argued that on that railway platform, even though there was no human individual speaking, the one making the apology was the company. The recorded voice actually comes from the railway company, and was simply transmitted by the automatic system, just like a letter carrier delivers a letter. But it turns out there is a problem with this too, and the problem is cost.

Apologizing, as we all know, can be a difficult thing to do, and that difficulty is part and parcel of the act of apologizing. Imagine receiving an apology for a deeply painful betrayal delivered casually, in a way that made it clear it carried no more emotional cost than commenting on the weather. You would understand immediately that it was not an apology at all, even if it contained the words “I apologize”. It is “cheap talk”, and while it could be an attempt to get you to be quiet and leave the offender alone, or to postpone the inevitable recriminations, or one of several other things, cheap talk can’t be an apology.

So when an automated system says “we apologize” then there is, in fact, no apology happening, no matter how often it says it. When the only action it takes to deliver the words is pushing a button somewhere, at the most, then the statement is “cheap talk”: cost-free communication that should carry no weight.

* * *

We are getting to understand the business of “speech without a speaker”. When we hear an automated voice saying “Your call is important to us” most of us do receive the real message. We know that if our call was really important then there would be a person there to receive it. The words are not the message; the automated system that delivers it is.

We understand that the letters we get from company CEOs offering us new deals do not, of course, come from the CEO at all. He (or occasionally she) may not even have read it, let alone written it. May not even know of its existence.

“Have a nice day” is a variant on the same theme: the phrase is often said by a real person, so it seems like there is a speaker, but if the hapless individual behind the till is reciting a script, and if delivering that script is a condition of their employment, then they are not really the speaker; they are simply passing on a message from someone else. And that someone else has no interest in the niceness (or otherwise) of your day: it is simply a calculated policy to give the appearance of friendliness.

On occasion, of course, someone behind a till is in a friendly mood, and actually gives the words real meaning. But most of us can tell the difference between such a sincere utterance and someone delivering a programmed script.

But while we are adjusting to the problem of speech without a speaker, we have not really started adjusting to the other changes that cheap communications technology are bringing. We know that our mediums of communication are changing, with new forms of internet-based communications mutating every few years, from e-mail to instant messaging to weblogs and more. What we need to adjust to is the way that the economics of these new media change the meaning of the messages we send and receive.

Many of us do adjust to these changes in meaning in our personal communications. A Christmas letter sent by e-mail to a long list of recipients means less to us than an individually handwritten letter. But our social systems are slower to change. In particular, there are forms of legal communication that have built into them an assumption of cost, but which can now be made very cheaply.

* * *

A new communication mutant was described recently by Mark Rasch, former head of the US Justice Department’s computer crime unit, in The Register, an online journal of technology comment. Rasch writes about “robolawyers” or “lawyerbots”:  programs designed to search the Internet for suspected violations of a company’s copyright or trademark. A lawyerbot can be designed not only to detect possible violations, perhaps by searching for keywords or combinations of words, it can also be designed to send out legal warnings (Rasch calls them “takedown notices”) to the owners and hosts of the sites involved.

The legality of these automated takedown notices has not been tested. But they don’t have to go to court to be effective. Internet Service Providers and other web site hosts such as eBay don’t like the possibility of lawsuits, and their legal liability for the content of the sites that they host is uncertain, so these notices are often enough to persuade them to take down the problematic material, regardless of whether there is anything wrong with it or not.

Rasch writes about Brian Kopp, who wrote a book based on the popular online game “World of Warcraft” and offered it for sale on the eBay auction site. The book was, by all accounts, in the spirit of those “Dummies” guides that tell you how to use Microsoft Word and other software products – an unauthorized third party guide, but not defamatory or illegal. Once Kopp posted his book, however, eBay began receiving a stream of “takedown notices” telling them that the book violated the rights of Blizzard, the company that owns World of Warcraft, and that they should remove it from their site. eBay responded by not only removing the book, but cancelling Kopp’s account so that he could not auction anything else either.

It is impossible to know for sure whether there were any real people involved at any stages of this campaign against Brian Kopp (who is almost certainly real, although not a very good writer). Rasch notes that Kopp’s eBay auction generated “a slew of takedown notices from various parties. As soon as he reposted the auction, it generated a new takedown notice. Human lawyers are generally not that efficient. So these autonomous agents may in fact be the ones generating these takedown notices.” So did any real person at Blizzard know they were sending takedown notices to Mr. Kopp? Quite possibly not. Had anyone (apart from a computer) “read” his book? Probably not. Did an individual at eBay weigh the evidence and decide what action to take, or does eBay have a program to disable accounts if it receives a sufficient number of complaints? Unclear.

The fact that legal letters rarely go to court, and the fact that they can be generated programmatically, means that automated legal notices are likely to increase. We are already subject to automated legal checks whenever we install new software, in those End User License Agreements that we have to say we’ve read even though we obviously haven’t, and even though they are not designed to be read. Increasingly, those agreements include clauses that let software report back to the company that made it about the use we make of it, or details about our computer. Such information can have legitimate uses, enabling better fixing of software problems for example, but it can also have illegitimate uses.

There is an assumption in our legal system that a legal notice follows some kind of investigation, however cursory, on the part of the party that issues it. That is, it is a document to be taken seriously. But auto-generated and widely distributed legal notices are “cheap talk”, and their increasing ease of generation means that, like the apology at the railway station, they should be treated as meaningless.

* * *

It would be easy to dismiss Brian Kopp’s case as absurd if it wasn’t so clearly a harbinger of things to come. As lawyerbots proliferate, companies will find it worthwhile to develop other lawyerbots to handle incoming “letters” and we will have legal communications that nobody writes and nobody reads. If a letter is delivered and nobody reads it, does it carry any meaning? If lawyerbots were just sending meaningless messages back and forth, nothing would be lost except for a bit of Internet bandwidth, but it seems that the legal system has not yet adjusted to this new mutant, and so such communications can be damaging.

Increasing automation means that forms of communications are mutating ever more quickly. Some developments are not difficult to foresee. As with all things computer-related, it is clear that automated communication is going to be more common – a lot more common – in the future than it is now. The near future will bring automated translation software that can provide good enough translation in a wider and wider set of circumstances. It will also bring speech comprehension software, and text-to-speech software of increasing subtlety: no more jerky sentences with those pasted together words – the audio equivalent of the ransom note pasted together from newspapers. Put them all together and programs will soon be carrying out conversations with people around the world, persuading us to part with our money in new and grammatically sophisticated ways, using voices designed to exploit our sympathies and prejudices.

Except they are not voices and not conversations at all, they just sound like they are. We need to be consistently on our guard if we are to avoid becoming confused by these mutant communications. As a first step, we need to acknowledge that machine-delivered apologies are not apologies, no matter how sincere they sound. And we need to decide that lawyerbot-delivered threats and warnings carry as much weight as the cost of delivering them, which is zero.

 

Blogging about blogging about blogging

Cut the Chatter noticed my thing about blogging being egotistical, and wrote something much better in reply. Basically, he says that

  • yes there is a bit of ego in it [agreed - who am I kidding if I say there's no ego involved in writing]
  • he doesn't really care if people read his stuff [I wish I could say the same, but my constant checking of sitemeter gives me away]
  • he enjoys it. And that's reason enough.

Except he says it better.

The other thing he says is that he enjoys reading other people's blogs. Which I do too. There's the ones I read because they are about a subject I'm interested in, which makes sense. I read the Mobile Enterprise Weblog because I'm interested in mobile computing, and I read StageLeft because it's a left-wing Canadian take on politics. The ones that have really surprised me are the ones about daily lives though. My favourite along those lines, which is now being turned into a book, is Random Acts of Reality, which is by an emergency medical technician working for the London Ambulance Service. Whenever I think my job is stressful, I just have to read his and I stop worrying about my own job. Like a few days ago:

I went to a stabbing yesterday - while we'd normally wait for the police to arrive to escort us into the house, the way that the job was sent down to us over the computer terminal let me think that I could safely approach.

The doorbell was answered by a young man with an obvious wound to the upper arm.

Getting him onto the ambulance I learned that he had 'come clean' to his long-term girlfriend about cheating on her two years ago. During the course of the argument she had then stabbed him in the arm with a kitchen knife...

My advice to everyone is that you shouldn't have an argument in the kitchen...

My brother likes a similar one by a policeman, "PC Copperfield" of "Newtown", whose day includes things like this:

I had to accompany a burglar to the local hospital because an injury he had sustained in the course of one of his crimes had become infected (poetic justice indeed). I had to sit handcuffed to him in the waiting room for an hour or so and eventually had to answer the call of nature. I removed my end of the handcuffs and attached them to the immovable waiting room chair before going to the toilet and collecting a few things from the car. On my return he said he felt humiliated, like an animal.

People of Newtown, I do what I can.

 

And then there are those other ones you just come across where someone is writing about their trip to Canada's Wonderland or whatever, and it's fun to read it. I really don't know why that is. Kind of like looking at other people's photos on Flickr. Sometimes you find links to entertaining things like apartment music. It's a real timesink, but an enjoyable one.

- and no, I'm not writing and reading this stuff at work. I'm off today.

Bob Rae

Yappa Ding Ding is all in favour of Bob Rae for leader of the Liberal Party. I'm no Liberal Party member, so my views count for exactly what you paid to read them. But I can't agree with this.

It's not that I think Bob Rae left the province a smoking wreck or anything like that - although the man himself suggests that the NDP doesn't know how to govern ("The NDP are good at how to distribute the cake, but not how to make  the cake."). Rae Days aside, the popular picture of the NDP provincial government of the time doesn't have a whole lot of relation to the reality.

It's something else that bothers me. It's this whole thing of people joining parties at the top. To hear Bob Rae, or Belinda Stronach, or Jean Charest, suddenly start talking about the traditions of the Liberal Party just makes my stomach turn over. Here is the front page of his web site:

The Liberal Party of Canada is one of the world's great political institutions, and I feel fortunate to have the opportunity to seek its leadership. During this exciting and important time for Liberals, I encourage you to play an active part in the Party's renewal and leadership process.

Excuuuuse me. Is that what you thought all those years you were with the NDP? Or would you say it about any party that might provide you with a route to power? 

I know, it's not like a political party is a sports team that you support through thick and thin for no good reason whatsoever, even when they let their manager go to the competition and so waste next year's chances of reaching the premiership, the idiots. I mean what were they thinking? It's obvious that Billy Davies has a huge amount to do with the near triumphs of the last two years, and PNE lets him go without a murmur? Jokers.

Sorry - what was I saying? Oh yes. Changing your mind is OK, but either his political past counts for something or it doesn't. Bob Rae seems to want the best of both worlds - he wants to disavow his NDP past ("I drifted" he says)  and yet his only real qualification as a potential prime minister comes from his NDP background and all the work that those in the NDP did to put him in the premier's office. As someone who knocked on a fair number of doors in that campaign, I resent his attitude - he wants to capitalize on the work that many volunteers did, and yet discredit it at the same time.

Great Throbbing Caterpillars

I was out in the front yard just now, trimming some miniature pine trees we have (to keep them miniature) when, all of a sudden, one of the branches moved.

Then it moved again.

What had looked like a slightly darker area of the tree was, in fact, a mass of caterpillars. And yes, they were throbbing, rhythmically.

You want proof? I've got proof. Here. Look at this. I put a video up on You Tube (my first posting there).

Watch the Caterpillars

Each caterpillar is about 2 cm (3/4 in) long. I've no idea what they are or whether I should be killing them. They've been doing the synchronized throbbing thing for about an hour at least now.

Two questions:

Q1 - Will use of the phrase "throbbing caterpillars" lead to a spike in traffic to this site?
Q2 - Is Great Throbbing Caterpillars a great name for a band. A. Yes.

Lordi

Guess what? One of the people on my blogroll is Lordi, who just won the much-derided Eurovision Song Contest!

Well, nearly. See the always-interesting FinnSense for more.

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